Week 12 NFL Picks: Thanksgiving

November 20, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell looks on during the third quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at US Bank Stadium. Mandatory credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Another week, another rough slate for us here PurplePTSD. For the third week in a row, the picks have fallen below .500 with weeks 2-5. However, it’s officially the holiday season, and maybe the football gods are in the spirit of handing out Ws this Thanksgiving weekend.

In this edition of the 12th NFL picks, we’ll take a look at all the action on Thanksgiving Day. Also keep an eye out for end-of-the-week market options. Before we get to the Thanksgiving slate, here’s a look at the Week 11 picks:

  • Titans +3 (W)
  • Eagles -6.5 (L)
  • Eagles/Colts O44.5 (L)
  • Patriots -3 (W)
  • Vikings +1 (L)
  • Cowboys/Vikings O47.5 (L)
  • Chiefs -6 (L)

Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions

  • Spread: bills -10
  • Bills ML: -450
  • Lions ML: +360
  • O/O: 54 points

Frey’s Choice: Lions +10

The Bills had to use Ford Field as their home stadium because of six feet of snow in Buffalo last weekend, and now they’re a road team on Thanksgiving just four days later. It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Buffalo as they had to play the Vikings and then went through a scrimmage last week before playing the Browns.

Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions have quietly been one of the NFL’s hottest teams in November. They have won three games in a row, equaling their win total for the entire 2021 season. Along the way, their defense has improved significantly in the early parts of the season. In that three-game winning streak, they have allowed just 19 points per game.

I’m not confident enough to say the Lions will win this game, but they should be good enough to keep it close. That sentiment only grows if Buffalo continues to rely more on running backs than Josh Allen with an elbow injury.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

  • Spread: Cowboys -9.5
  • Giants ML: +330
  • Cowboys ML: -410
  • O/W: 44.5 points

Frey’s Choice: Above 44.5 points

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants couldn’t be on more opposite sides of the spectrum right now. Dallas topped the Minnesota Vikings in Minneapolis last weekend, while New York lost at home to the Detroit Lions 31-18.

It’s hard to tell if the Cowboys will now have a bad game or if the Giants will be the cheaters that some suspected earlier in the year. Regardless, if we take Dallas’ offense for real, points should definitely exceed 44.5 on Thursday.

Over the past three games, the Cowboys have averaged 39 points on their own, meaning the Giants need just a touchdown to pull it off. Dallas has beaten teams in this area with a brilliant balance of both passing and rushing attacks, and I would expect a higher score once again.

New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings

  • Spread: Vikings -2.5
  • Patriots ML: +130
  • Vikings ML: -150
  • O/W: 42.5 points

Frey’s Pick: Vikings -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings have had some wild swings over the past two weeks. Two weeks ago, they fell to the Buffalo Bills in a 33-30 overtime win on the road. Then, last weekend, they got blown out at home by the Dallas Cowboys 40-3.

Fortunately, the Vikings are down until Thursday and likely want nothing more than to get back on the field to right the wrongs of last Sunday. The Stars won’t be dealing with Christian Darrisaw this week, but their defense should return a couple of crucial defenders.

Additionally, the Patriots’ loss of starting center David Andrews will make things difficult for them. New England’s offense has struggled to score points all season, and the Vikings need to find a way to win this game.

Josh Frey is a 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a BA in Creative Writing. He also earned minors in History, Human Biology and Journalism. When not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys marathon training, playing video games, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account for more of his thoughts: @Freyed_Chicken.