MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: May 1, Mariners vs. Marlins

Below: 7

first pitch1:40 p.m. ET

Likely pitchers: Logan Gilbert (3-0, 0.40 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (2-0, 1.78 ERA)

April 26, 2022; Saint Petersburg, Florida, United States; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

For the second day in a row, let’s try to capitalize on an apparent line error.

Once again, the linemakers are being too giddy by giving up totals 7 times what they should be right now, while the runs and home runs are still considerably low. To make things more puzzling, they’ve gone for one of those 7 in this premium pitcher matchup emanating from a pitcher-friendly park.

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I can’t speak highly enough about Sandy Alcantara, especially when she comes to work during the day. As I have written (and won) numerous times, this man is simply one of the best when the sun comes up.

In his career now, Alcantara has made 27 afternoon starts and compiled a 2.19 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in those outings. Putting that into perspective, that’s not far off his career-high at this point of the day in major league history (1.81 ERA) held by elite Jacob deGrom.

It only helps that Alcantara is off to another strong start in 2022. In four starts, he is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA, with two earned runs or fewer in each timeout. Although his strikeout numbers are down noticeably, I wouldn’t worry about this, since he’s still taking advantage of his fireball speed. An increase should definitely be expected.

Meanwhile, his counterpart, Logan Gilbert, is having an even more impressive start to the campaign. The brilliance he exhibited as a rookie a year ago has quickly translated into significant success.

Gilbert enters his fifth start of the season going 3-0 with a microscopic 0.40 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Yes, the former first-round draft pick has only scored one earned run in 22.1 total innings, which was a few weeks ago in his season debut.

There is a lot to like about Gilbert as he continues to progress in his big league career. Apparently, we’re also getting the right-hander in his preferred environment. While still not a huge sample size, there may be something to be gleaned from Gilbert possessing an ERA that was nearly two full runs lower in the afternoon (3.75) than it was in the evening (5.55) in his first year in MLB. .

Both starters are not only performing well, but they’re also pitching within their comfort zone and couldn’t be more confident. Facing two of the weakest offenses in their respective leagues, runs will be slim.

Choice: LESS THAN 7 (-128)

2022 MLB Over/Under betting record*: “14-6-3”, +7.43 units

yesterday’s result: Guardians-Under 7 Athletics (WIN)

*Each bet rated as winning 1 unit

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