Final SAG Nomination Predictions: ‘Belfast’, ‘No Time to Die’ and More

The nominations for the Screen Actors Guild Awards, as well as the list of nominees for the BAFTA Awards, are major precursors to the Oscars. So let’s see how the nominations can land.

Netflix’s ‘Power of the Dog’ won the most awards in five categories: Image (18), Director for Jane Campion (27), Actor for Benedict Cumberbatch (16), Supporting Actor for Kodi Smit-McPhee (19) , adapted scenario (24). He’s also in second place in cinematography for Ari Wegner (10) and in score for Jonny Greenwood (7), both behind Warner Bros. ‘ “Dune.”

With the science fiction epic of Denis Villeneuve, he has a stronghold in multiple artisan races, including cinematography for Greig Fraser (12), editing for Joe Walker (3), sound (4), effects visuals (9) and the score (14). He’s also second behind Guillermo del Toro’s “Nightmare Alley” in production design, which has just taken the lead after the victories of Austin and Chicago Indie Critics last week.

When it comes to the SAG ensemble category, this has always been a strong indicator of Best Picture at the Oscars. Focus Features’ “Belfast” and “The Power of the Dog” should easily be on the lineup. But, in the vein of shocking rebuffs from the main alleged contenders in SAG history (i.e. Natalie Portman in “Closer” or Amanda Seyfried in “Mank”) in favor of left-field inclusions (that is, ie, Naomi Watts for “St. Vincent” or Nicole Kidman for “Bombshell”), we anticipate a shocking dud from Kirsten Dunst for “The Power of the Dog”. I hope I’m wrong, but if she missed this it wouldn’t necessarily mean she’s in trouble for the Oscars.

The joy and happiness surrounding the cast of Apple Original Films’ “CODA” has been palpable for weeks. Not only do I expect him to be part of the lineup of five, like former one-off castings such as “Beasts of No Nation” (2015) and “Captain Fantastic” (2016), but he could very well win the category in March.

With a talented cast of newcomers and Latino veterans, 20th Century Studios’ “West Side Story” looks like a sure bet for the whole, especially considering past musical nominees like “Les Misérables” (2012) and “Hairspray” (2007) made the cut. Ariana DeBose, who just won the Golden Globe and is the current leader in supporting actress wins with 10 wins, is expected to sail to her first name SAG, likely alongside her co-star Rita Moreno, who does has never been nominated by SAG since the award body has only existed since 1994. However, it received the Life Achievement Award in 2014.

It’s hard to say what to think of award contenders like “Being the Ricardos” from Amazon Studios and “Licorice Pizza” from MGM / UAR. In the case of the first, the star Nicole Kidman has just won a surprise victory at the Globes. Coincidentally, she never won a SAG Award, despite the Oscar for “The Hours” in 2003 (co-nominee Renee Zellweger won the SAG Awards for “Chicago”). Nonetheless, she and her co-star JK Simmons are viable possibilities for the names.

SPENCER, Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana, 2021 © Neon / Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy of NEON / Everett Collection

For “Licorice”, which is tied for the second victory in pictures with the Japanese feature film “Drive My Car”, he had admirers of critics and audiences who ventured out to see him, but he didn’t. landed with everyone. It would prove his strength as “Dallas Buyers Club” (2013) if he landed in the top tier, and someone like Alana Haim could be an equal benefactor, who is second behind Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) in the tally. best actress wins. Olivia Colman’s work in “The Lost Daughter” has some support, perhaps even giving her co-star Jessie Buckley a chance to sneak in (maybe even the whole set?). Unfortunately, Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”) both seem on the bubble.

Speaking of Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci” has struggled over the past few weeks in terms of buzz and reactions to Academy members who have watched it. Stepping into this week with just one New York Film Critics win, one has to wonder if its place is as secure as we once thought.

The Best Actor category apparently has four spots guaranteed for Cumberbatch, Andrew Garfield (“Tick, Tick… ​​Boom!”), Will Smith (“King Richard”) and Denzel Washington (“The Macbeth Tragedy”). The last place is open to several leading men. Nicolas Cage is second behind Cumberbatch in forerunners for his turn in “Pig”, which could continue to translate on the circuit over the next few weeks. The other horses in the race are Clifton Collins Jr (“Jockey”), Bradley Cooper (“Nightmare Alley”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Don’t Look Up”) and Peter Dinklage (“Cyrano”). I’m giving Dinklage the SAG advantage, but don’t be shocked to see a young, rookie actor like Cooper Hoffman (“Licorice Pizza”) or Jude Hill (“Belfast”) perform a play.

The supporting actor category was dominated by Kodi Smit-McPhee, who won four times as many awards as his next closest competitor Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), who won five. It’s also a race that seems to have four sure bets, “Belfast” men Jamie Dornan and Ciarán Hinds will cement their Oscar spots with names here. The premiere’s spot could be a potential missed morning nomination in favor of a child actor like Woody Norman (“Come on, come on”), who the group is known to kiss, or Jared Leto, who tries to stay on top of it. water with his co-star. It’s worth mentioning that Dornan and Hinds co-star Caitríona Balfe finally earned her first critical victory this week in San Diego, albeit as a lead actress – although she is campaigning to support it.

Finally, when it comes to “No Time to Die”, this is the only film that pundits and journalists can underestimate. The only film to appear with each shortlisted category it was eligible for will likely have a strong showing with BAFTA. I wouldn’t count on the possibility of Daniel Craig showing up as a lead actor with both bands. Here’s a reminder that he was nominated at the BAFTAs for “Casino Royale,” and it’s safe to say that “Skyfall” may have missed out on the Best Picture Cup in its respective year. With all the questions surrounding “Spider-Man: No Way Home” making it the best picture, maybe we’ve all watched the wrong blockbuster?

The final predictions are below for the SAG Awards, including TV.

(Left to right) Caitriona Balfe as "Mum", Jamie Dornan as "Good", Judi Dench as "Granny", Jude Hill as "boyfriend", and Lewis McAskie as "Will be" in BELFAST by director Kenneth Branagh, a Focus Features release.  Credit: Rob Youngson / Focus Features

SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

Best performance by a distribution set

  • “Belfast” (focus features)
  • “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
  • “Don’t Look” (Netflix)
  • “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
  • “West Side Story” (20th century studios)

Alternate: “King Richard”

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
  • Peter Dinklage, “Cyrano”
  • Andrew Garfield, “Tic, Tic … Boom!”
  • Will Smith, “King Richard”
  • Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Substitute: Daniel Craig, “No time to die”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

  • Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
  • Olivia Colman, “The Lost Girl”
  • Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
  • Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
  • Rachel Zegler, “West Side Story”

Alternate: Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Jamie Dornan, “Belfast”
  • Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
  • Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
  • Woody Norman, “C’mon C’mon”
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”

Alternate: JK Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

  • Caitríona Balfe, “Belfast”
  • Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
  • Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
  • Rita Moreno, “West Side Story”
  • Ruth Negga, “Pass”

Alternate: Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”

Best Performance of a Stunt Set in a Motion Picture

  • “Dune”
  • “No time to die”
  • “Shang Chi and the legend of the ten rings”
  • “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
  • “West Side Story”

Substitute: “Black widow”

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Graeme Hunter / HBO

SAG Prize (Television)

Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble in a Drama Series

  • “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
  • “Poser” (FX)
  • “Succession” (HBO)
  • “Squid Game” (Netflix)
  • “Yellow vests” (Showtime)

Alternative: “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)

Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble in a Comedy Series

  • “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
  • “Bend Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
  • “Hacks” (HBO Max)
  • “Reservation Dogs” (FX on Hulu)
  • “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)

Alternative: “Only the murder in the building” (Hulu)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

  • Brian Cox, “Estate” (HBO)
  • Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
  • Lee Jung-jae, “Squid Game” (Netflix)
  • Billy Porter, “Pose” (FX)
  • Jeremy Strong, “Succession” (HBO)

Alternate: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Don Cheadle, “Black Monday” (Showtime)
  • Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
  • Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  • Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  • Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)

Alternate: Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method” (Netflix)

Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

  • Murray Bartlett, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  • Oscar Isaac, “Scenes from a Wedding” (HBO)
  • Michael Keaton, “Dopesick” (Hulu)
  • Ewan McGregor, “Halston” (Netflix)
  • Evan Peters, “Easttown Mare” (HBO)

Alternate: Joel Edgerton, “The Underground Railroad”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Drama Series

  • Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV Plus)
  • Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
  • Mj Rodriguez, “Pose” (FX)
  • J. Smith Cameron, “Succession” (HBO)
  • Sarah Snook, “Succession” (HBO)

Substitute: Uzo Aduba, “In processing”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
  • Sarah Jessica Parker, “And Just Like That” (HBO Max
  • Issa Rae, “Insecurity” (HBO)
  • Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
  • Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV Plus)

Alternate: Allison Janney, “Mum”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Movie or Miniseries

  • Jessica Chastain, “Scenes from a Wedding” (HBO)
  • Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus” (HBO)
  • Cynthia Erivo, “Genius: Aretha” (National Geographic)
  • Julianne Nicholson, “Easttown Mare” (HBO)
  • Kate Winslet, “Easttown Mare” (HBO)

Substitute: Margaret Qualley, “chambermaid”

Best Performance By A Stunt Ensemble In A Television Series

  • “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
  • “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” (Disney Plus)
  • “Loki” (Disney Plus)
  • “Squid Game” (Netflix)
  • “Yellowstone” (Paramount Network)

Alternate: “Hawkeye”

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