Horse Racing Tips: Early Oil, Analysis & Best Bets for Flemington on Saturday

The talented Literary Magnate filly should be too good for her rivals, while lightning may strike twice in the Listed Straight Six at Flemington.

Herald Sun forms analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Flemington meeting.

BEST BET

LITERARY TYCOON (Career 4, No.1)

Classy filly who was just beaten when she gave the winner 7kg in first place. He’s a bit better at weights here and will be hard to beat with additional fitness.

VALUE BET

ROMANCER (Race 7, No.6)

He won this race for $101 last year and comes into Saturday’s race after a solid first run at Caulfield. He likes the straight and is a second winner.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 4, 13/1, 2, 8, 9, 10/1, 2, 3, 13, 14/5, 13

$100 flex for 50 percent

LARGE6

1, 2, 3, 13, 14/5/2, 7, 10, 14, 16/1, 6, 8, 9/1, 9, 13/6, 11, 18

$100 flexi for 11.1 percent

FOUR

Race 6: 2, 7, 10, 14, 16

Race 7: 1, 6, 8, 9

Race 8: 1, 2, 9, 13

Race 9: 4, 6, 11, 18

$100 flex for 31.25 percent

RACE 1 (11:50): FANFAVE HANDICAP (2500m)

Race remaining to start Flemington meeting. QUEEN TAKES KING (2) drops down the class after a fourth-place finish in the Warrnambool Cup at the Listed level last time out and put in good efforts at WA in his previous two races. He will noticeably improve on firmer ground. TARAMANSOUR (1) struggled on soft ground at Sandown in second, but will be much fitter for that outing. REFLECT THE STARS (8) performed well in a race dominated by the leader at Caulfield, but will suit much better on this longer ride. ALGIERS (10) could add value to the multiples after a good first pass in Ballarat.

SUGGESTED BET: The queen leads the king each way.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Sender $6.50 – $5.50

RACE 2 (12:25 pm): DONATE @ NJT.ORG.AU HANDICAP (1400m)

DEATH THOUGHTS (2) found plenty to score in his Sale debut and will only get better with that experience. The 1400m should be suitable for the son of So You Think. FAR FROM DISCREET (13) closed well on her 1200m debut and a little more ground should suit the filly. SKYFORGER (4) has been close behind in both of his races this time around and qualifies and has every-way opportunities with blinders for the first time here. BROSNAN (1) drops down the class after struggling at the Group 1 level in Sydney, but finished well in the VRC Sires’ Produce at this track two races ago.

SUGGESTED BET: Lethal thoughts to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Brosnan $4.80 – $3.30

RACE 3 (1PM): TROA SUPPORTS NJT (2000m)

Many of these three-year-olds are climbing 2,000m for the first time at this. HARD QUESTIONS (8) looks set for this ride after a playing effort against older horses at Warrnambool. TURFIE (10) hit the line hard as she enjoyed the 2000m at Pakenham and could be up to this more difficult task. SUNDAY’S BEST (9) ran well to break her maiden at Cranbourne and should find the right 2000m. FLASH FEELING (2) came home safe from behind last Saturday and should make the extra trip here.

SUGGESTED BET: Difficult questions each way.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Natural Mystic $15 – $9.

RACE 4 (13:35): SOFITEL MELBOURNE ON COLLINS TROPHY (1400m)

LITERARY TYCOON (1) will be much fitter for her excellent second place under 61kg at Sandown last time out and will enjoy another 100m in better weight terms than her rivals this time. ISRAELITE BAY (13) jumped well before proving too strong in the first place. She could go on with it. LIBERATED GIRL (14) was an impressive winner in her debut and has had more time to develop. KIR ROYALE (3) was fair in Brisbane first and could find this easier.

SUGGESTED BET: Literary tycoon to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Definition of $3.70 – $3.50.

RACE 5 (14:10): ECYCLE SOLUTIONS TROPHY (1100m)

It’s tough to pass STAR PATROL (5) in his second run down the straight. He crashed out when he won by seven lengths down the Anzac Day straight and will be fitter again for that race. OUTBACK ACTION (13) steps up in class from him, but he was a dominant winner at Mornington last time out. TREPORTI (7) was consistent in longer runs last time, but he can run fresh in this one. SCISSOR STEP (1) is a reliable sprinter that won’t be far away again.

SUGGESTED BET: Star Patrol to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Star Patrol $1.80 – $1.65.

RACE 6 (14:45): PFD FOOD SERVICES (1800m)

Could this be the day for KINANE (7) to return to her winning form? Both of his races this time have been terrific and he is set for a journey that he will be well prepared for. BASARWA (10) oddly tied for this, but there was a lot to like about the way he finished at Sandown last time. WORTHILY (14) freshened up after a good early run and should go well. WELSH LEGEND (16) should have finished a bit closer at Sandown last time out and will be fitter.

SUGGESTED BET: Kinane in every way.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Freshness $6.50 – $3.90.

RACE 7 (3:25 pm): LISTED HILTON NICHOLAS STRAIGHT SIX (1200M)

ROMANCER (6) was a surprise winner of this race for $101 last year, but appears poised for a chance to win again after a good effort when he gave the top spot at weight to Extreme Warrior. BLAZEJOWSKI (1) may want a little more, but he has the quality to threaten here fresh. SUSPECT SIRIUS (8) always runs well down the straight and can get better again in each-way contention. FRONT PAGE (9) outplayed his rivals at Wagga and likes the straight track at Flemington.

SUGGESTED BET: Romancer in every way.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Cover $3.70 – $3.30.

RACE 8 (4:05pm): TCL TV HANDICAP (1600m)

PROCONSENT (9) made a promising Victorian debut when he had a bit of bad luck in the first place at Warrnambool and will only be fitter for that outing as he drops from 59kg to 54kg for this. TUVALU (13) beat Proconsent in Warrnambool with the help of a 4kg jerk but will be fitter here. SO SI BON (1) is never far away and you might find this a little easier than his last assignment at Caulfield. CHERRY TORTONI (2) and he won’t be far behind.

SUGGESTED BET: Proconsent in all senses.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Tuvaluan $3.80 – $2.80

RACE 9 (4:40 pm): CARRIL SANTA ANA SPRINT SERIES HEAT 2 (1000 m)

A tough race to finish off the Flemington meeting, but HYPERSONIC (6) could be ready to get back on the winning track after a good effort on heavy ground last time out. He can improve on a firmer foundation. GRAND POPE (11) is a first time winner and ran well at the end of a nice Werribee jump. MRS SIPPY (13) ran well without a win last time and is worth including here fresh. MASK UP (18) remained undefeated in the top spot in Adelaide and was able to live up to it.

SUGGESTED BET: Hypersonic to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Zac DeBoss $7 – $6.50

NICK QUINN MAIL BAG

TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for major races across the country.

BEST BET: Quintello (Rosehill, R9 No.13)

VALUE BET: On the boat (Morphettville, R8 No.6)

LAYOUT OF THE WEEK: Sweetness (Morphettville, R6 No.1)

TV HANDICAP (1600m)

Flemington, R8 16:05

Tuvalu have a great record and defied a betting drift to win in the latest outing from Warrnambool. The gelding has had health problems, but trainer Lindsey Smith has him fired. Tuvalu has been backed from $3.80 to $3.

Vitruvius has had a better one in both races this season and again it is a great opportunity.

Veteran So Si Bon has a good record over 1600m and gets some weight relief after Laura Lafferty’s claim.

TIP: TUVALU wins

LORD MAYORS CUP (2000m)

Rosehill, R7 14:30

Bethencourt, trained by Kim Waugh, has been backed from $6 to $4.20 and is a clear favorite.

Come into this race after winning at Randwick and Warwick Farm.

Early favorite Aleas is on the second betting line at $5. The UK import comes into this thanks to a strong Wagga Cup victory in his first start over 2000m, the distance of this race.

His stable mate Irish Sequel is coming off a fifth place finish in the Wagga Cup.

TIP: ALEAS in each direction

DOOMBEN CUP (2000M)

Doomben, R7 15:18

One of the current stars of racing, Zaaki was an impressive winner of seven lengths this past year when he was a $2.25 favorite and looks a class above again. He is $1.50 and a good anchor for multiple bets.

Polly Gray pushed Zaaki a fortnight ago when he was second in the Group 2 Hollindale Stakes at the Gold Coast and he is the logical runner to win multiples.

TIP: Win ZAAKI

THE GOOD WOOD (2000m)

Morphettville, R8, 15:47

The money is in the glamorous Extreme Warrior colt, backed from $6 to $4.80 from the draw barrier. He is coming off a strong win at Caulfield when he was sitting outside the lead.

Behemoth has gone from $8 to $7. In his prime he must be respected, but his last three starts have been underwhelming.

My pick is The Boat-trained Lindsay Smith. She has won six of her last seven starts, including a dominant 2.75-length win over Sale in the $500,000 Discovery.

The wide drawing is a small concern, but Blake McDougall should be able to move into a positive position. A $8 In The Boat seems like a good back-and-forth play.

A good long shot is Regardsmaree, trained by Nick Ryan, who has won his last two starts and should have a good run in transit out of gate one. He can get into the money at $21 and $6 a spot.

There has been money for Frankie Pinot $51 at $34 and Not An Option $51 at $21, while Savatoxl won this race last year and is at $17.

TIP: ON THE BOAT each way, REGARDSMAREE place

Originally published as Early Oil: tips, analysis and best bets for Flemington on Saturday

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