Horse Racing Tips: Caulfield’s Best Bets, Analysis, Brad Waters Preview, Early Oil, Nick Quinn’s Mailbag

The Group 2 Grandslam winner will be ready to fire after two races this time, while a three-year-old can get the older horses rolling at the VOBIS Gold Mile at Caulfield.

Herald Sun Forms Analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s rich VOBIS Gold meeting in Caulfield.

BEST BET

GRANDSLAM (Race 4, No.2)

He ran skillfully but was outgunned when he went up sharply on a ride at Flemington in second. He will be much more fit for it and it will be harder to hold on this time.

VALUE BET

UMGAWA (Race 8, No.6)

He ran well to score at Flemington when he was out from a month off at Flemington. He has a similar break on Saturday and can roll the older horses.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 2, 4, 5/2, 3, 8, 9, 10/2, 5, 9, 11/1, 3, 4, 6

$100 flex for 31.25 percent

LARGE6

2, 5, 11/1, 3, 4/1, 4, 12/1, 3, 12/1, 2, 6/2, 9

$100 flex for 20.57 percent

FOUR

Race 6: 1, 4, 9, 12

Race 7: 1, 3, 5, 12

Race 8: 1, 2, 3, 6

Race 9: 2, 9

$100 flex for 78.12 percent

RACE 1 (12:10): HANDICAP YULONG STUD (1400m)

Great field to start with, but maybe not as fast as would be normal with 16 runners. VASMEE (6) can work to find the advantage from her wide gate and again can be difficult to beat at her favorite distance. AKECHETA (1) is honest and his record as the top finisher indicates that he can stand out again. PAL D’ORO (17) is up in his class but he can move up and be competitive. Former Kiwi TOKORANGI (2) resumes and could find himself with the smaller money in this easier loan.

SUGGESTED BET: go to win

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Vasmee $5 – $4.20.

RACE 2 (12:45): VOBIS GOLDEN WHEEL (1400m)

SIRILEO MISS (1) sprinted and fought hard to the dead end with the smart Foxy Frida in Bendigo and should be better again for that start. STARELLE (2) is a talented mare on the take. She’ll be working fine at the end of this. COMICA (5) led all to win over 1600m last time but has tied for all chances in this shorter competition. STAY GOLD (4) is a talented mare taking up her favorite ride, so respect her.

SUGGESTED BET: Miss Sirileo to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Miss Sirileo $2.80 – $2.25.

RACE 3 (1:20PM): THE THREE GUINEAS (1600m)

Complicated race despite the betting market. TOBAYSURE (3) is the top pick after a strong win in the Class 1 company at Pakenham. Grades up but can gain back before a spell. SACHEM (8) was not far behind Geelong in first place and easily won the maiden from him over this distance range in the spring. DON DIEGO (9) has shown a lot of skill in his two races and should be around the mark again. THE CLAIMANT (10) won well at Cranbourne in second place and is a rising three-year-old.

SUGGESTED BET: I am sure to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Don Diego $4.40 – $3.70.

RACE 4 (14:00): VOBIS GOLD HEATH (2000m)

GRANDSLAM (2) is almost ready to shoot after two solid runs this time. He was way up on the trip when he was third to Pondus at Flemington last start and will be better off with that race under his belt. REFLECT THE STARS (11) resumes and runs well on this ride, so expect another run from her. EUREKA STREET (5) has just been found wanting at 2400m, but is better suited at 2000m. Adelaide’s visitor FOX D’OR (9) is running well and is worth thinking about.

SUGGESTED BET: Grandslam to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Grandslam $3.20 – $3.10.

RACE 5 (14:40): VOBIS GOLD DASH (1100m)

ICE PICK NICK (3) isn’t great with weights, but he’s an emerging sprinter who has won well on both soft and good ground. It will roll forward and should be up to this. MIDWEST (1) is a speedy three-year-old who will find this easier than his last run. SCISSOR STEP (4) ran well to score on this course in first place and is undefeated in second place. GIMMIE PAR (6) is better than his last run on heavy ground in Sydney and has blinders for this.

SUGGESTED BET: Nick ice pick to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Nick Ice Pick $6 – $4.80.

RACE 6 (15:20): THE SHOWDOWN (1200 m)

Tasmanian visitor BELLO BEAU (1) should be undefeated after the two-year-old was severely delayed in the last outing at The Valley. He is able to recover with blinders at first. CAPITAL EXPRESS (12) led the way to win on his debut at Cranbourne and could have lived up to it. KINGS CONSORT (4) has been around the mark in all three races to date and should be back in prominence. HOLLERLUJAH (9) won the VOBIS Gold Rush on his debut and will charge late on this longest ride.

SUGGESTED BET: Beautiful Beau to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: New York Hurricane $18 – $12.

RACE 7 (3:55PM): YOU GOLD SPRINT (1200M)

Good sprint for $250,000 but he’s going with THE ASTROLOGER (1) after his two excellent efforts in Group 1 racing in his last two starts and he’s doing well in the weights. SIRIUS SUSPECT (3) rolls back eight days after running well in the Country Discovery for sale and will be fitter. SWATS ESO (12) hasn’t won in a while, but this is the first time he’s run outside of the betting company since his debut. LOMBARDO (5) was quite good in a pace-dominated race at Sale, but he can improve here.

SUGGESTED BET: The astrologer to win.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: No note movements.

RACE 8 (16:35): YOUR GOLDEN MILE (1600m)

Three-year-old UMGAWA (6) is worth considering against the older horses after finishing well to win the VOBIS Gold Reef at Flemington last month. It prospered over 1600m and will have Damien Oliver on board again. SO SI BON (1) is as honest as it gets and is often hard to beat in this type of racing. NO EFFORT (3) will be fitter for his first race at Bendigo and could be harder to beat if he gets away with it up front. JUNIPAL (3) will find this easier than their previous two runs this time.

SUGGESTED BET: Umgawa in every way.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Adele Love $6.50 – $5.50.

RACE 9 (17:10): LISTED ANSWERS BEL ESPRIT (1100m)

EXTREME WARRIOR (9) is a short-term favorite, but his victory at Blue Sapphire was outstanding and he has won three jumps in the run-up to his return to racing. BLESS HER (7) was solid as he resumed and ran past Caulfield’s 1100m course. IT’SOURTIME (11) won for the first time last time and should be fresh here. GENERAL BEAU (2) must be respected after the last start of him third in the Group 1 level.

SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta box 2, 7, 9, 11.

EYELASH MARKET MOVEMENT: Extreme Warrior $2.80 – $2.15.

NICK QUINN MAIL BAG

TAB tip expert Nick Quinn gives his suggested bets for the main races at Caulfield, Morphettville and Randwick.

BEST BET: ANDERMATT (Randwick, R7 No.2)

VALUE BET: NIKAU ESPUELA (Randwick, R9 No.13)

LAYOUT OF THE WEEK: DON DIEGO (Caulfield, R3 No.9)

THE SHOWDOWN (1200m)

Caulfield, R6, 15:20

The Showdown is worth $950,000 in prize money and is held exclusively for the progeny of VOBIS sires.

Bello Beau has already been backed from $2.80 to $2.40 since the barrier draw.

The Tasmanian star suffered the first defeat of his career in the last start at The Valley when he found himself in an awkward position ahead of the corner before coming home to finish fifth.

There was some good betting movement in the pre-post markets for Hollerlujah, coached by Henry Dwyer, who went from $11 to $4.50 in pre-post betting and is now at $7.

Hollerlujah caused an upset on his debut when he outlasted his rivals to win the $250,000 VOBIS Gold Rush in Bendigo for $26.

The double-digit odds broker I anticipate running well is Don’t Change, coached by Nick Ryan, at $11.

Don’t Change was heavily supported in the days leading up to its Bendigo debut in the race won by Hollerlujah before an alarming late drift.

He ran well and can improve significantly in Saturday’s second assignment.

Bello Beau is shaping up to be the victor, but happy to have an all-out bet on Don’t Change.

TIP: DO NOT CHANGE in each direction

YOUR GOLD SPRINT (1200M)

Caulfield, R7, 15:55

Swat’s That enters Race 7 at Caulfield and Race 6 at Morphettville on Saturday.

Unless it rains in the next 24 hours, he will race at Caulfield.

The Corstens team will have a strong hand in the race with the first two on the market

Swat’s That ($3.10f) and The Astrologist ($4.60). They are the horses to beat.

Both Corstens runners were fantastic in the Newmarket Group 1 handicap won by Roch ‘N’ Horse with The Astrologist in second and Swat’s That finishing fifth.

I’m leaning towards Swat’s That, who has always raced well at elite level and with good speed, he should have a chance to come out on top and secure his fourth career win.

The astrologer will be up to date and taking the catch and he is worth including in the quaddie, as is Lombardo.

TIP: SWAT IS THAT victory

REDELVA STAKES (1100m)

Morphettville, R8, 16:17

A good betting opportunity here with Bacchanalia at $3.70.

The James Cummings-trained gallop enjoyed an excellent spring/summer campaign winning three in a row and turned heads when it resumed at Rosehill when he was runner-up to the elegant Mazu.

He is undefeated at 1100m and is second undefeated and I hope the money comes for him.

Stablemate Heresy looks like the main danger and is on the second betting line at $5.60 backed from $6.50.

Heresy rebounded from a spell with a win at the PJ Bell and broke his maiden at Morphettville last May.

With higher odds, there has been a move for Magic Max, backed from $15 to $8.50.

Magic Max rebounded from a spell with a win at this venue before running an unlucky second in Caulfield’s last outing and is worth a return ticket.

TIP: BACCHANALIA wins, MAGIC MAX each way

HANDICAP FURPHY (1100m)

Randwick, R7, 15:00

Andermatt is shaping up to be the best bet in the whole country in my opinion.

He resumed a spell at Canterbury as he cruised to a six-length win over Dragonstone and looks to be in an ideal position to win again.

It has reasserted itself from $1.90 to $1.85 and is worth sticking with as you quickly move up the grades.

Soy yo enters this race third and is on the second betting line at $6.50, while Dragonstone can enter the standings at $3.20.

Dragonstone has also accepted for Doomben but will run at Randwick.

TIP: ANDERMATT wins, DRAGONSTONE takes place

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