Game Picks 5 Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: Bet Toronto bounces back at home

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning return to Scotiabank Arena on May 10 tied 2-2 in their first-round playoff series.

The pre-game narrative: It can’t be understated how important Game 5 of a Stanley Cup playoff series is. In the 420 series in NHL history where a team has gone up 3-2, the series-leading team has advanced 332 times (79%). The team that loses this game will have the odds stacked against them. Find out why we don’t think it’s Toronto.

Here are our picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs for Tuesday’s pivotal Game 5.

Overview of Lightning Vs. maple leaves

  • Maple Leafs Money Line (-125)
  • Over 6.5 goals (-132)
  • Maple Leafs three-way money line, first period (+163)

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Picks

Best bet: Maple Leafs ML (-125)

We won’t try to sugarcoat Toronto’s poor Game 4 effort. But if there’s one thing these teams have revealed in their head-to-head matchups this season, it’s that the previous game has no bearing on the next.

That’s because neither Toronto nor Tampa Bay have been able to win back-to-back games against each other this season. In the total eight meetings between them, the team that lost the previous contest ended up winning the next one.

Read more: Maple Leafs vs. betting trends Lightning

The Buds will benefit from returning home and having the latest change after Toronto’s superstars really struggled to generate offense at Amalie Arena. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner produced seven even force points in Games 1 and 2 compared to zero in Games 3 and 4.

Marner struggled to produce much offensively in Tampa Bay.  Photo by Chris O'Meara/AP.

Goalie Jack Campbell should also be smiling about a return north of the border.

The netminder had some pretty stark divisions at home and away during the regular season, posting a brilliant .924 save percentage in 26 games at Scotiabank Arena and a .904 SV% in 23 road starts. That has held steady in the postseason, as his .914 home SV% eclipses his mark on the road (.860).

Expect the Maple Leafs to bounce back and reclaim the series lead in Game 5.

Key stat: Home teams are 442-292 (60.2%) in Game 5 in non-closeout, non-elimination situations in NHL history.

Read more: How to bet on the NHL

quick picks

Over 6.5 goals (-132): Toronto and Tampa Bay have exceeded this total in six of their eight meetings this year and in each of the last three playoff games. A team has scored at least five goals in seven of their head-to-head battles this season.

This series has also featured the second-most power play opportunities (41) of any first-round matchup. Fade the bass.

Maple Leafs three-way money line, first period (+163): The winner of each game in this series has also won the first period. Toronto has a whopping 11-3 advantage in high-danger chances in the first period over Tampa Bay at home, according to Natural Stat Trick. Expect the Maple Leafs to start off strong after a tough Game 4.

Odds courtesy of Sportradar as of 2:17 pm ET on 05/09/22.


Steven Psihogios writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the parent company of Star. Follow him on Twitter: @StevenPsihogios

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.

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