The Canadian government has an unequivocal stance on Donald Trump’s just-announced political turnaround: nothing.
Two years after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau blamed The Canadian government intends to keep the then US president mum as he riots to cling to power.
Conversations with Canadian officials in recent days have made it clear that they have no intention of voicing any resentment they may feel in light of the events of January 6, 2021.
However, the idea of Trump’s return to power is being cautiously discussed among the participants within international institutions.
Last week, when Trump announced another presidential election, two of these institutions coincidentally met: NATO and the COP27 climate conference.
Trump’s announcement happened at the same time emergency meeting With NATO leaders and the UN after the missile landed in Poland climate talks It takes place in Egypt.
The potential implications for both of these institutions are obvious. Trump tried to retreat from the UN climate pact. And he threatened to let go NATO or seriously to shake this time different the past assistants they said they were afraid that in the second term it really can be to retreat.
WATCH | Trump announced his candidacy for the presidency in 2024:
During the Trump years, Canada’s representative to NATO declined to describe what the talks were like at the time because he said the secrecy of the talks was a sacred principle between the military allies.
But when asked to assess the potential impact of Trump’s comeback, Kerry Buck it was dull.
“It can be very damaging,” Buck, now retired from government, told CBC News. “In Ukraine, specifically and everywhere.”
I am watching with excitement in Europe
Buck said there are some plans that NATO has just adopted strategic document Trump’s return to office will come under question, as will the value of alliances with China and climate change as a security threat.
To be clear, NATO is not worth talking about without the US; Americans account for almost 70 percent of the alliance’s total defense spending.
But the immediate concern of NATO insiders is not Trump pulling out; he can be serious weakencalling for doubt collective defense clause.
The former president has recently become the subject of concern in Brussels, where NATO headquarters are located. A NATO watcher there said Europeans nervously looked to the recent US midterm elections for signs of a resurgence of Trump MAGA.
There was Republican support for funding and arming Ukraine softening and the idea of the US Congress cutting off that aid would have unexplained consequences.
But Chris Skaluba said he was relieved about the results of the by-elections in Brussels and hoped poor showing Trump-type nationalists have strengthened the pro-NATO faction in Washington.
According to him, people in Europe are now looking forward to the 2024 US elections.
According to Skaluba, there are still many wild cards and unknowns about what the world will look like on January 20, 2025, the date of the next US president’s inauguration.
“Given that so much is going to change, it’s hard to predict,” said Skaluba, a NATO analyst at the Atlantic Council think tank who previously worked in the U.S. government, the Pentagon and other security-related positions. As a link with NATO.
“What is the status of the Ukraine conflict? Is Putin still in power? … Have European and Canadian defense spending continued to rise? Will NATO play a significant role in the fight against China?”
He said all this will be important for the exact results of Trump’s second presidency. Overall, Skaluba would expect the kind of turbulence we saw between Trump and his allies in 2016 and 2020. But he added two caveats.
According to him, one of them is much higher than in 2016 in Eastern Europe. According to Skaluba, Trump is now more experienced in using the levers of power to get what he wants.
Confusion at climate conference
At a climate conference in Egypt last week, one attendee shuddered at the thought of another Trump presidency.
“It would be catastrophic,” said Stela Herschmann, an environmental lawyer at Observatorio do Clima, a network of Brazilian NGOs.
“The world has no time to waste on deniers [climate-change-denying] leaders.”
It was quite a difficult conference: the countries fought for two weeks put the deal together delayed a number of difficult choices.
They have pledged to create a fund to help poor countries affected by climate change, but have yet to attach an exact dollar figure to it.
Try to imagine President Trump signing a budget bill passed by the Republican-controlled Congress that funds UN climate support for poor countries. Not a slam dunk, to put it mildly.
However, on some aspects of energy and climate policy, Trump’s pro-pipeline position is actually closer to that of the Canadian government.
He said he supports the Keystone XL pipeline and is likely to support the project 5th line the dispute is likely to be welcomed in Ottawa, although it’s too early to tell whether it will affect either pipeline: the former project is now dead, while the latter is under dispute.
Other countries are quietly watching
The Canadian government will not comment on these possibilities.
He will not comment on the outcome of Trump’s candidacy, which is clearly stated. news anchor Trump’s candidacy announcement from NPR: He tried to rig elections and inspired deadly riots to stay in office, and now he wants power again.
Canada has many companies at its discretion.
Other US allies told CBC News that they are not talking about Trump’s candidacy. Spain will not comment, Germany will not say anything on the record. Mexico commented – only to say it was maintaining its longstanding policy of non-interference in US politics.
Focusing on the return of any politician, even this one, would be both inappropriate and counterproductive, said one Canadian official speaking on the background.
It is inappropriate because, the official said, Canadians will not appreciate such foreign comments on our policies; and is ineffective because it divides our country with republicans, federal and state level.
A recently retired Canadian diplomat is urging Ottawa to keep mum on the matter. While it might make sense to raise concerns about a political candidate in some countries, he said it doesn’t make sense to do so in the United States right now.
Recently retired diplomat: Commenting on Trump has ‘zero’ benefit
Louise Blais said she participates in weekly conferences with Canadian diplomats based in the United States and that they never discussed the idea of raising common concerns about Trump.
“It has never, ever come up in these conversations,” said Blais, who has been posted to the UN in Washington, the US Southeast and New York.
“There’s a sense that even though it feels good at the moment and seems politically expedient at home, whatever we say will have zero chance of actually effecting change. So the question is: if it wins, why try to intervene. It’s already positive it won’t work out and we’ve just complicated our relationship?”
In addition, he said, Americans do not require foreigners to speak. According to him, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans, unlike some countries, do not turn to other countries to interfere in US politics.
If anything, he said, Canada should try to build relationships across the US political spectrum: on the right, on the left, on the alt-right, on the far left, at the federal and state levels.
According to him, it is the main job of diplomats to listen to people’s opinions, collect their mobile numbers and continue the dialogue over time.
Blais was one of the first Canadian officials to reach out to the original team around Trump as consul in the southern US in 2016, where he met with policy advisers who later became administration officials.
Towards the end of his diplomatic career, he started working meetings With some southern US senators when he lobbied for changes to Canada’s electric vehicle tax credit.
So the plan is not to jeopardize the relationship in Ottawa.
Events in the past have disrupted these plans. In late 2015, Trudeau referenced Trump’s then-proposed Muslim ban ignorantirresponsible and full of hate.
After Trump became the Republican nominee, Trudeau became more cautious. This is unlike Canada’s former ambassador to Washington expressed a clear favorite During the 2000 US election.
Some Republicans still felt Canadians were talking too much during the 2016 campaign: Blais recalled one prominent politician saying Ottawa was already straining relations with the incoming president.
We’ll see if the silence lasts. To paraphrase an old saying, a two-year presidential campaign is an eternity in politics.