Well, as Albo gave the victory speech on stage, tired but vindicated, one’s dominant thought was “Hmmm”. I mean, first it was “YES, YES, YES”, then “Don’t say the sweetest victory of all”, then “Hmmm, what exactly happened?”
His correspondent’s view of the nation, developing throughout the campaign, had been that the country’s most exuberant and energetic forces were developing among the knowledge class and the broader liberal middle classes.
These were people angry at climate change inaction, corruption, lies and mockery, as well as no sense of a future plan, no place for them in the Liberals, no sense of connection to a post-Whitlamite Labour. , and the Greens also left on multiple fronts. The new social self-confidence of these underclasses, the changes made by social networks, a lot of organization by the movement that grew out of Indi, empowered by money from Climate 200, had created a new empowered force whose networked form mimicked the work/the living arrangements to which they were accustomed floated on top of their discursive abilities and capacities, in what became a virtuous circle.
The more those people listened, the more the movement recruited. This worked both in liberal urban areas and in rural settings where community networks of volunteers remained strong.
Against this, it seemed to me that, at the other extreme, about 10% of the population oriented to UAP, One Nation, etc., certain types of “ordinary” Anglo-Saxon middle class, along with some of the excluded and other blocs . They enjoyed the “concrete” stories these parties told, of vaccine conspiracies connected to larger conspiracies about frustrated lives and lost culture.
But between these two vocal groups, there was about a quarter to a third of the electorate who had fallen silent instead of being silent. His sense of atomization and disconnection was now total; They did not even identify with the self-proclaimed populists who, by the mere fact of being inside the system, had become part of it, not its representatives within it.
Once they could have found their place within a range and file. Now, often with low-level educational skills, isolation, and disconnection, they found that the only way to preserve their identity and sense of self, amidst all that blah, blah, blah, all that talk, was to withdraw so much that their feelings were difficult. to measure by whatever method.
My guess was that the energy driving Labor forward would meet this force, which leaned heavily towards the Coalition – albeit with no admiration for Scott Morrison – and reduce Labor’s forward march to a majority, stopping it at the no man’s land of a hanging. parliament.
So, uh, *checks notes*. This is a complex outcome, with that surge of liberalism happening and giving a sense of avalanche, handing Labor several seats in these progressive hearts, and some changes that came very close to handing it another five or six. However, the Labor result will be located on the border of the majority government, with between 75 and 78 seats.
Although a Labor majority seems more likely than unlikely, it is slim, with not much room for maneuver in the months and years to come. The creeping increase was even greater in the areas won, or almost won, by the Greens: Ryan and Griffith, perhaps in Macnamara, near Richmond. He delivered exactly what he promised in half a dozen teal seats. There was also the surge of “rust” (I’m going to keep calling rural teals rusts until I have to) that hollowed out safe national majorities across the country.
But Labor really failed to emerge in some of the “middle-middle” seats, places where the UAP and One Nation have no more than 8% or more of their far-right aggregate, but where there is some degree of resistance to the new package. progressive. expressed as negative. So Labor couldn’t take Longman in suburban Brisbane, and has only a slim chance of taking Casey in Melbourne’s outer northeast.
In Tasmania, the last region where there is a stranglehold on political culture by the working class, he couldn’t take Bass or Braddon (even with Lambie’s preferences in the latter), and has regressed in Lyon. It is true that the Coalition did not achieve the great revolt in these ‘suburban lands’ that it expected.
That suggests to me that while the great progressive moment has occurred in Australian politics and represents the enlargement of the ‘progressive class’, it was not the victory of a grand coalition.
Power and ideological hegemony have decisively changed, and progressives should be bold in asserting their agenda. But in places where people still feel left out, unattended, unable to connect with power or the means to get there, where there is no point in talking about getting out of public housing because there is none, there is still a resistance to the narrative and to the set. progressive worldview.
Anthony Albanese, if he is to be any kind of Labor leader, he will need to find a way not only to deliver both the progressive vision and to the needs of the silent and excluded, he and Labor will need to honor their vision of what the world is. , and what matters, build and consolidate a government in this legislature and succeed in the next one.
Still, go to Albo, go to Labor, go to Green, go to Teal, go to everyone. In the words of our wide and multicolored country: mate, sweet.